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For the NFL handicapper Womens Henrik Lundqvist Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Henrik-Lundqvist-Jersey/) , understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called overunder numbers) is also a crucial component of his wagering arsenal. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number youll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER. In the case of the aforementioned Superbowl, Pittsburgh won by a final score of 27-23 meaning that bettors who backed the OVER cashed their tickets.


To the uninitiated, betting on NFL totals can seem very arbitrary. In reality, theyre a valued tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much. A successful handicapper can look for situations where the total itself is off as well as more subjective factors (weather, injury or matchups) that can contribute to the scoring output or lack thereof.


The basics of setting NFL totals are fairly simple: the bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive data for the two teams and constructs a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games thats a total of 625. Divided by 16 and thats an average of just over 39 points per game. If their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together Womens Martin St. Louis Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Martin-St-Louis-Jersey/) , divide by two and youve got a base total of 40.5.


At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team”meaning that a team like the Baltimore Ravens with a strong defense will be more likely to impose their will on a team resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.


Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow Mats Zuccarello Authentic Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Mats-Zuccarello-Jersey/) , or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple–some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations.


In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for a hard working handicapper to leverage his information about a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury–and have factored it into the number–but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge for the NFL betting enthusiast.


Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority onsports betting. He is also a consulting handicapper for Sports-1 Sportsbook and is in charge of setting NFL lines. He has written extensively on sports handicapping theory along with a wide range of other topics including fencing, self defense and flower arrangement.

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- After months and months of mock drafts and revised mock drafts and re-revised mock drafts, there is no more time to waffle.

Mosley Shazier So what does that mean for the Green Bay Packers if they stay at No. 21 in the first round of the NFL draft?

Let's take a look at what several local and national NFL writers and analysts see for the Packers (with links to their full first-round mock drafts):

Rob Demovsky, ESPN
Player: Justin Gilbert Henrik Lundqvist Authentic Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Henrik-Lundqvist-Jersey/) , CB, Oklahoma State My take: With Eric Ebron, C.J. Mosley, Ryan Shazier, Odell Beckham Jr. and the top-two safeties off the board in our NFL Nation mock draft, a move back was intriguing. Even though the Packers re-signed Sam Shields, cornerback will be a need down the road with Tramon Williams getting up there in age, and Gilbert is too highly rated to pass up. Note: With all due respect to my NFL Nation colleagues Martin St. Louis Authentic Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Martin-St-Louis-Jersey/) , I'm not sure I see the first 20 picks playing out the way it did in our draft, which was unveiled on Tuesday. I find it highly unlikely that all of those players I mentioned will be gone by the time the Packers pick. Given the opportunity to do the entire first round on my own, I believe there is a good chance at least one of those previously drafted players will be available. In that scenario, I think it would come down to Mosley or Shazier. On the contrary, I do not believe Gilbert will be available to the Packers at No. 21 as he was in our mock. Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN
Player: C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama Kiper Jr.'s take: I've had Mosley in this spot before Mats Zuccarello Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Mats-Zuccarello-Jersey/) , and it makes a lot of sense both as a value -- he's a top-15 player for me -- and also from the standpoint that he fills an obvious talent void at linebacker. He can line up next to A.J. Hawk and not only help the run defense, but also give the Packers a very good cover linebacker. The question for Mosley has been whether he can stay healthy, but he has stayed on the field and could be a pretty big steal at this point. Todd McShay, ESPN
Player: Marqise Lee, WR, USC McShay's take: I would never put Lee here, as I think safety is a much bigger need (and the No. 1 safety on our board, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Henrik Lundqvist Jersey (http://www.hockeyrangersjerseysshop.com/Blue-Henrik-Lundqvist-Jersey/) , is still available in this scenario) and there are probably four or five other .